Apollo, Bain LBOs Lose Investors' Money, Bonds Show

(Bloomberg) -- Less than a year after Apollo Management LP paid $6.6 billion for real estate broker Realogy Corp., bond prices show the deal may be worthless.

Debt used to finance the April purchase trades at 61 cents on the dollar, and derivatives tied to the securities indicate an 80 percent chance that Parsippany, New Jersey-based Realogy will default. Apollo, the private-equity firm run by Leon Black, put up about $2 billion of cash to buy the owner of Coldwell Banker and Century 21, borrowing the rest.

The bonds show Apollo's equity in Realogy ``has no value right now,'' said Sabur Moini, a money manager in Los Angeles at Payden & Ragel, which oversees $50 billion in fixed-income securities. ``If bonds are trading in the 50s or 60s, the market is saying that these guys are headed toward bankruptcy.''

Falling bond prices are jeopardizing private-equity returns after easy access to cheap debt fueled a record $1.4 trillion of leveraged buyouts in 2006 and 2007. New York-based Morgan Stanley estimates buyout funds raised in 2003 have returned an average of 42 percent, and now Apollo, Bain Capital LLC, Cerberus Capital Management LP and their competitors may face losses.

Twenty-seven percent of the approximately $74 billion in bonds used in LBOs the last two years classify as ``distressed'' because they yield at least 10 percentage points more than Treasuries, Bloomberg data show.

Distressed Defaults

About 19 percent trade at less than 80 cents on the dollar, below the 91-cent average for high-yield bonds, Bloomberg data show. Freescale Semiconductor Inc., an Austin, Texas-based maker of chips for mobile phones, and OSI Restaurant Partners Inc., the Tampa, Florida-based owner of Outback Steakhouse, are in both categories.

Debt is 20 times more likely to default within a year once it's crossed the distressed threshold, according to research by Martin Fridson, chief executive officer of high-yield research firm FridsonVision LLC in New York.

``There's going to be some blow-ups'' as the economy slows, said Eric Bushell, the chief investment officer at Toronto-based Signature Funds, which oversees $17 billion and invests in publicly traded buyout funds. LBO firms ``paid prices that maybe weren't necessary,'' he said.

LBO firms typically seek out investors such as pension funds or university endowments to fund 32 percent of the cost of any buyout on average, according to Standard & Poor's. They borrow the rest through high-yield, or junk, bonds and loans in the target company's name. Junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service and lower than BBB- by S&P.

 

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Pfizer, Schering HIV Drugs May Fail On Incorrect Test

(Bloomberg) -- Pfizer Inc.'s new AIDS drug and a similar pill from Schering-Plough Corp. may stop working in some patients because a test identifying who should get the medicines is sometimes inaccurate.

The pills, made by Pfizer, of New York, and Schering, based in Kenilworth, New Jersey, block a chemical entryway known as CCR5 that the virus uses to infect cells. In about 10 percent of cases, a Monogram Biosciences Inc. test incorrectly identifies patients who will benefit from the drug, scientists said this week at an AIDS meeting.

New research on Pfizer's Selzentry and Schering's vicriviroc, as well as the test's reliability, will be presented today at the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections in Boston. While the pills promise to fight HIV in patients who can't take older medicines, the new drugs' effectiveness depends on accurate screening.

``The test is wrong in about 8 to 10 percent of patients initially screened to see if they are candidates for a CCR5 antagonist,'' David Hardy, director of the division of infectious disease at Cedars Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, said in a telephone interview. ``We're waiting to see if the next-generation test from Monogram will eliminate the errors.''

Selzentry was cleared in August for patients who stopped responding to older medicines. It's the only approved CCR5 inhibitor, the first new family of AIDS medicines in a decade.

Pfizer didn't report revenue for Selzentry last year. Analysts have projected the pill could have peak annual sales of about $300 million. Vicriviroc, a similar drug, is in the third and final stage of testing usually required for U.S. regulatory approval.

90 Percent

As many as 90 percent of previously untreated HIV patients will have a strain of the virus that enters healthy cells through the CCR5 doorway, Howard Mayer, executive director of clinical research and development for Pfizer, said in an interview at the meeting in Boston.

After five years of HIV infection, about half of patients still have that strain, Mayer said. By then, most patients have higher levels of another virus version known as X4 that infects cells through a different route unaffected by drugs such as Selzentry and vicriviroc.

A new test to better determine who can benefit from the Pfizer and Schering drugs is about six months from reaching the U.S. market, Chris Petropoulos, chief scientific officer for South San Francisco-based Monogram, said in a telephone interview.

 

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GMAC Posts $724 Million Loss as Home Loans Sour

(Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the auto and mortgage lending company once owned by General Motors Corp., posted a $724 million loss in the fourth quarter as home buyers fell behind on their mortgage payments.

The net loss compares with a profit of $1 billion a year earlier, the Detroit-based company said in a statement today. GMAC said it's talking to buyers for parts of the Residential Capital mortgage unit, which recorded a $921 million quarterly loss.

GMAC vowed today to make money in 2008 after falling home prices and record U.S. foreclosures led to a $2.3 billion companywide loss for 2007. Provisions for bad mortgages probably will decrease this year, GMAC predicted. The auto finance unit remained profitable, overcoming a 6.1 percent decline in GM's North American auto sales last year.

``While results were weak, we suspect investors will take some encouragement from GMAC's expectation of profitability in 2008,'' said Himanshu Patel, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

ResCap's future may include acquisitions, sales, alliances and joint ventures, GMAC said. Discussions are in various stages and GMAC said it's unclear whether any transaction will result. The unit lost $4.3 billion for the full year.

GMAC said it bought $740 million of ResCap debt during the quarter to bolster the unit's capital. ResCap ended the period with equity of $6 billion, which GMAC said exceeded requirements set by lenders and ``the amount needed to support its ongoing operations.''

Auto Finance

Profit at GMAC's auto finance unit declined 77 percent to $137 million because of reduced gains from the sale of contracts signed with car buyers. Income at the insurance business dropped 91 percent to $68 million because of lower capital gains and higher losses on customer claims. GMAC's auto finance business had its lowest net quarterly profit in more than two years.

Moody's Investors Service downgraded ResCap's senior debt today to B2 from Ba3 and dropped the senior unsecured rating of GMAC to B1 from Ba3, with a negative outlook for both firms. The ratings company's statement cited lower liquidity, ``the risk that ResCap's net worth could fall below its minimum net worth covenant if GMAC doesn't provide more support, and ``Moody's belief that ResCap's franchise is impaired.''

ResCap's loss stemmed from a higher provision for bad loans, fewer new mortgages and markdowns on the value of securities and loans held for sale. ResCap was the eighth- biggest mortgage originator last year with $94 billion in loans, according to a preliminary tally by trade journal Inside Mortgage Finance.

 

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CDO Ratings to Fall as Losses Trigger Fitch Overhaul

(Bloomberg) -- Fitch Ratings may downgrade $220 billion of collateralized debt obligations as mortgage-related losses increase.

The New York-based company may lower the securities by as much as five levels after failing to accurately assess the risk of debt that packages other assets. CDOs with AAA grades that are based on credit-default swaps and aren't actively managed may face the steepest reductions, according to guidelines proposed by Fitch today.

Ratings firms are responding to criticism that they failed to react quickly enough as rising defaults on subprime mortgages in the U.S. caused a plunge in the value of CDOs. Fitch, a unit of Fimalac SA in Paris, lowered $67 billion of mortgage-linked CDOs in November, slashing some AAA debt to speculative grade, or junk.

``Fitch is acknowledging that it was overly optimistic in its default rate and other assumptions in its original CDO methodology,'' said Christian Stracke, an analyst at bond research firm CreditSights Inc. in London.

Moody's Investors Service last year downgraded $76 billion of CDOs and began this year with $185 billion of deals under review. The New York-based company said yesterday that it may overhaul its system for evaluating structured-finance securities, proposing options including a numerical scale and a designation of ``.sf'' to differentiate a structured-finance ranking from a corporate credit grade.

Ratings Challenge

Standard & Poor's, the New York-based unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., downgraded or placed under review $98.3 billion of CDOs last month, citing ``stress in the residential mortgage market and credit deterioration.''

Fitch's review of 600 CDOs referencing company debt and derivatives doesn't cover structured-finance notes, which package asset- and mortgage-backed securities. It plans to introduce the new criteria by the end of March after seeking feedback.

Fitch wants to ``challenge existing CDO rating assumptions,'' John Olert, head of global structured credit at the ratings firm in New York, said in a statement. The company wants to ``produce ratings that perform similarly in terms of default risk and ratings migration with the market's expectation for other asset classes,'' he said.

CDOs are securities that repackage pools of bonds, loans and credit-default swaps and slice their cash flow into notes of varying risk and returns that are sold to investors. Junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service and lower than BBB- by S&P.

 

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U.S. Economy: Service Industries Unexpectedly Shrank in January

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession as the housing slump deepened and consumer spending cooled.

``This is a stunning fall,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York. ``If accurate, it's dire news on the economy.''

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which reflects almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 41.9, from 54.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based ISM said. A separate report today by Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc showed Europe's service industries grew in January at the slowest pace since 2003.

Stocks fell and Treasury notes rallied as traders added to bets that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by another half a percentage point at or before its March meeting. Today's reports also show the economic slowdown that began with a U.S. housing downturn is jeopardizing Europe's expansion and increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to follow the Fed and cut rates.

The ISM published the data, which assesses retailers, banks and construction companies, more than an hour earlier than scheduled. The release time was changed because of concerns about a ``breach'' of embargoed information, ISM spokeswoman Andrea Waas said in a telephone interview.

``The possible breach was very general information disclosed during a private conversation by someone who is normally not involved in the report process but was involved this month due to unique circumstances,'' Waas wrote later in an e-mailed response to questions. ``It was an innocent slip of the tongue.''

Worse Than Anticipated

The index was projected to fall to 53, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 65 economists. Estimates ranged from 51 to 55. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction, and the index has averaged 57.6 since its inception in July 1997.

``The economy is shrinking,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. ``How much is still uncertain.''

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.54 percent at 10:31 a.m. in New York, from 3.64 percent late yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5 percent to 12,449.9. Equities also retreated in the U.K., Germany, France and Italy.

Royal Bank of Scotland said its purchasing managers' index for services dropped to 50.6, the lowest since July 2003, from 53.1 in December. Retail sales in the euro region declined 2 percent in December from a year earlier, a record, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today.

European `Shocker'

The services data are ``a shocker,'' said Holger Sandte, chief European economist at WestLB in Dusseldorf. ``The ECB certainly wants to see more evidence for a marked slowdown, but the data will give them pause for thought on interest rates.''

Today's U.S. services report included a new composite index to reflect changes in current measures of business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. The contribution from each sub-index is equal.

The new composite index was 44.6 in January. It would have been 53.2 in December, according to Bloomberg calculations based on a formula provided by ISM.

The ISM group's index of new orders for non-manufacturing industries fell to 43.5 from 53.9 the prior month.

An index of employment dropped to 43.9 from 51.8, and a gauge of supplier deliveries decreased to 49 from 52.5.

A measure of prices paid also dropped to 70.7 from 71.5.

Payrolls Drop

The housing recession is hurting other parts of the economy. Employers in January reduced payrolls for the first time in more than four years, the Labor Department reported last week. Service providers added 34,000 workers to payrolls after an increase of 143,000 in December. Builders trimmed staff by 27,000 workers.

``Risks to growth remain,'' Federal Reserve policy makers said Jan. 30 when they cut the benchmark interest rate by a half point. The action followed an emergency three-quarter-point reduction the prior week. Investors are betting policy makers will lower the rate by another half point next month, according to futures trading.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, unexpectedly expanded in January, showing business investment is holding up even as other areas weaken, according to a report from ISM last week.

 

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